Type I interferons (IFNs) play an important role in the pathophysiology of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). While cross-sectional data suggest an association between IFN-induced gene expression and SLE disease activity, interest in this as a biomarker of flare has been tempered by a lack of fluctuation with disease activity in the majority of patients. This led us to question whether IFN-induced gene expression might instead be a biomarker of overall disease severity, with patients with high levels spending more time in an active disease state.

Levels of five interferon-responsive genes were measured in the whole peripheral blood at baseline visit for 137 SLE patients subsequently followed for 5 years. Log transformed values were summed to yield a composite IFN5 score, and the correlation with various disease outcomes examined. Receiver operator characteristic analyses were performed for outcomes of interest. Kaplan-Meier curves were generated to compare the proportion of flare-free patients with high and low IFN5 scores over time.

The baseline IFN5 score was positively correlated with the adjusted mean SLE disease activity index-2000, number of flares, adjusted mean prednisone dose, and number of new immunosuppressive medications over the subsequent 5 years. Optimal cut-offs for the IFN5 score were determined using Youden’s index and predicted more severe outcomes with 57–67% accuracy. A high baseline IFN5 level was associated with a significantly increased risk of subsequent flare.

Measurement of the type I IFN signature is a useful tool for predicting the subsequent disease activity course.